Get ready for a thrilling ride as we dive into the world of oil and gas drilling, where Africa is poised to take center stage!
The upstream sector is buzzing with momentum, and 2026 is shaping up to be a game-changer. Last year, the success rate for high-impact wildcat wells skyrocketed, and the total discovered volumes increased significantly. According to Rystad Energy's research, the success rate jumped from 23% in 2024 to a remarkable 38% in 2025, with discovered volumes reaching approximately 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe).
But here's where it gets controversial... High-impact wells are designated based on various factors, including the potential resource size, their ability to open new hydrocarbon plays, and their significance to operators. In 2026, these wells are expected to drive exploration momentum even higher, with a global focus on specific basins and countries. Africa, in particular, is set to dominate, accounting for around 40% of planned high-impact exploration wells. The Atlantic margin, including the Orange Basin in Southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, will be at the forefront of this exploration surge.
Rystad Energy's outlook for 2026 highlights a clear concentration on ultra-deepwater and frontier exploration. Ultra-deepwater wells will account for approximately 60% of planned drilling activities, led by major oil companies, followed by national and international oil companies. Most wells will target frontier regions, while a small percentage will focus on basins with prior discoveries and new, untested plays. Africa's role is pivotal, with all onshore high-impact drilling in 2026 expected to occur on the continent, except for the Greenland well, which will explore the frontier Jameson Land.
So, why is Africa in the spotlight? Well, it's a combination of geological potential and the prospect of significant, commercially valuable discoveries. In a tightening global supply environment, Africa offers a unique opportunity for operators seeking long-life resources. As Aatisha Mahajan, Head of Exploration at Rystad Energy, puts it, "Africa stands out because it still combines geological potential with the prospect of large, commercially meaningful discoveries."
Outside Africa, Asia is also making its mark, with eight high-impact wells planned. Indonesia leads the way with four wells, followed by India and Malaysia with two each. Between 2021 and 2025, these countries awarded substantial new acreage, exceeding 200,000 sq km, primarily driven by offshore blocks. Onshore awards were dominated by Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and China, reflecting Asia's diverse exploration landscape.
Over the past decade, Asia has recorded approximately 18 billion boe of conventional hydrocarbon discoveries, with gas accounting for a significant portion. However, discovery volumes have been concentrated in a few countries, such as China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. While Asia remains a key player in hydrocarbon exploration, the opportunities are becoming more concentrated in established areas. This suggests that future high-impact growth may depend on exploring less mature basins or technically challenging fields.
As of 2025, the year has been the weakest in the past decade in terms of new volume additions, with total discoveries hovering around 1 billion boe. Oil has dominated the volumes added, primarily due to discoveries in Malaysia and Vietnam. Offshore discoveries accounted for the majority of volumes, with the main producing countries leading the way. There is an expectation that the 2025 totals may be revised upwards as more information becomes available.
In the West, North America's exploration performance has taken a hit since 2022, with yearly discovered volumes dropping significantly. Discoveries in Canada and Mexico have stalled, leaving the US Gulf of America as the primary source of new volumes. The recent finds in the US Gulf are oil-weighted and concentrated in mature, heavily explored basins. In 2025, total discoveries fell to around 238 million barrels, with Mexico and the US Gulf of America contributing the majority of the finds.
Overall, the continued reliance on mature basins and declining discovery volumes suggests limited upside for conventional exploration in North America. Without access to new plays or significant improvements in exploration success, the region may continue to see incremental, oil-weighted additions rather than groundbreaking discoveries.
So, what do you think? Is Africa's dominance in high-impact drilling a sign of a new era in the oil and gas industry? Will Asia's exploration landscape shift towards less mature basins? And how will North America's exploration performance evolve? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
